[LAC #94] 리튬 생산은 단기간에 되지 않는다

많은 리튬 신생업체들이 곧 몇 만톤 만든다 어쩐다 얘기한다. 리튬 산업 뿐 아니라 모든 광물 산업의 특징을 모르고 하는 말이다 (리튬은 광물이 아니라고들 하지만). 정말 원자재를 파는 데는 어마어마한 시간이 걸리고 생각보다 이것저것 제약이 많다. LAC이 올해 곧 생산할 카우차리도 2016년에 LAC이 2019년부터 생산할 거라 얘기했다. 3년이 지연되었다. 심지어 올캠의 카우차리는 무려 20년전에 계획된 일이었다. 그러니 리튬은 향후 몇 년은 기존 플레이들이 여전히 우위를 점할 것이다. 그리고 여기에 진짜 생산하는 신생업체는 아마도 LAC이 유일할 것이다. 많은 사람들은 인내심이 없다. 그러나 현명한 투자자들은 인내심으로 승부한다. 

 

Lithium Supply

Lithium Americas is a good example of why Goldman Sachs’ bearish lithium price target may not come to pass, and why BMI’s report may be closer to the mark. It’s worth remembering that back in 2016, LAC was targeting 2019 for the start of lithium production at Caucharí. But as is often the case in these big complex projects, unexpected slowdowns are bound to occur. Management can’t factor these into their initial plans because of the fact that they’re unexpected. Halting construction for Covid is an excellent example, and so are lawsuits and regulatory challenges.

For shareholders a delay in a project’s construction is never welcome news. But as BMI points out in their report, the accumulated impact of all these producer project delays throughout the industry has the effect of limiting lithium supply growth and keeping prices elevated. At the individual company level, the important thing is management’s ability to eventually complete the project and start producing.

 

So, while shareholders may have to wait longer than they initially thought for production to begin, when that does eventually occur, they’ll begin benefiting from the accumulated delays in all the other projects in the industry.

LAC’s shareholders may be tempted to despair when they see all the regulatory and legal obstacles in Thacker Pass’ way. But as the Caucharí project approaches the finish line, they should finally start to benefit from all the chronic construction delays in the lithium industry and the high lithium prices that those bring about.