[LAC #87] 리튬도 결국 선물시장이 열릴 것이다.

기업 입장에서도 헷징할 필요가 있으니. 오늘자 wsj 기사.

Much of today’s lithium market is locked into deals between suppliers and battery makers at prices that are more or less fixed far below current spot rates. There is a good reason for such contracts: Batteries need to be made to high-quality specifications with trusted batches of inputs. Suppliers such as Albemarle resist the word commodity, preferring “specialty chemical.” The lithium market is never likely to move in any great volume to an exchange.

 

This doesn’t mean prices can’t vary. In fact, more deals are already being indexed to reported spot prices, with premiums or discounts to reflect different product qualities or contracted volumes, says Peter Hannah, senior price-development manager at Fastmarkets. As he points out, these moves are the natural result of market volatility, because buyers and sellers suddenly can’t reach agreement on fixing the price.

What hasn’t yet evolved is an active futures market, despite efforts by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and others. This may be a matter of time. Car makers, which increasingly negotiate contracts directly with lithium suppliers, will look to hedge out any spot pricing risk they take on. With enough liquidity, a cash-settled futures market would in turn bring much greater pricing clarity to lithium. Investors will help here: A Goldman Sachs note calling the end of lithium’s bull run on May 29 triggered a healthy debate, but without proper futures, it isn’t easy to trade views.