LAC 공청회 그러나 험난한 여정 시작

오늘 미국 시간 기준으로 공청회가 있을 예정. 이와 관련하여 Austin Craig라고 시킹알파에 꾸준히 글을 올리는 사람이 LAC과 관련된 의견을 적었는데 아래 부분이 눈에 들어옴. 

 

설령 LAC이 지방 법원에서 이긴다고 하더라도 항소를 할 것이고, 원고가 여기에 또 반발하면 연방대법원까지 갈 수도 있다. 어쨌든 이번에 미란다 판사가 LAC 편을 들어준다고 하더라도 바로 될리가 없고 아마 또 소송을 걸 것이라는 의견. 

 

LAC에 어제인가 건설회사랑 계약했다는 기사를 올렸는데, 글쎄다. 이게 곧 재판 승리를 의미하는 것은 아니다. 설령 지방법원에서 공사 재개를 허락한다고 하더라도 또 드는 걱정은 그 많은 공사비를 어디서 충당할 것이냐는 점. 아레나 미네랄에 이미 2천억 이상 쓰기로 했는데 태커패스에 또 돈을 쓰면 적어도 몇 천억 들건데 그럼 유증을 또 하지 않을까 생각한다. 

 

그런 점에서 LAC의 효력은, 일단은, 다했다고 본다. 물론 판결 전후로 슈팅이 날 수도 있다. 그러나 그 기간은 오래가지 않을 것이라 예상해본다. 

 

그리고 나머지 리튬 관련주들도 여전히 조심스럽게 봐야할 듯. 

Lithium Americas Risk: Legal Issues

While I think LAC will become a very large company, it is not to say they do not have issues: All companies have issues. Let us explore some risks.

 

1. Legal - As most readers know various tribes, environmentalists, and a rancher are taking the BLM to court and LAC is acting as an advisor. At risk is the very mine that LAC has spent over a decade to try to bring into being. From a national strategic standpoint this mine makes sense and both Trump and Biden have supported it. The state of Nevada supports it as well. Some locals support: Some do not. Also involved are a few out of state actors.

 

I was asked about my opinion on the new court documents. Not being a lawyer, I can only make a guess, but I would venture this is the Judge acting impartial. If the Judge does not address the obvious issues ruled on in the past by other environmental cases, then the Court of Appeals would have to. It is better to air out the case now at the lower courts and then wait for any potential Court of Appeals case to kick off to further explore issues.

 

No matter who wins, I would expect an appeal and the associated delays, but does it end with the Court of Appeals? Possibly no. If we look at a Rio Tinto case for any basis, we see the lower court ruling (this is where LAC is currently at legally), then the appeals court, followed by talk of going to the Supreme Court (assuming they agree to hear it). The point being this could continue for an unknown amount of time or maybe it all wraps up and the opposition throws in the towel based on what the Judge rules. The takeaway is this could be far from over for either party. I do not know the timeframes for this phase of the legal dance. I do not think it will resolve on day one. I would guess it takes some time so plan any options trades accordingly.