알버말은 여전히 시장 좋게 보는 듯

오늘자 FT 기사. 알버말은 여전히 시장 좋을 것이라 보지만 나는 약간 반신반의. 아래 기사. 한국어는 내 주석. 

 

World’s biggest lithium producer bets on prices staying high despite supply rush | Financial Times (ft.com)

World’s biggest lithium producer bets on prices staying high despite supply rush

 

Albemarle, the world’s largest lithium producer, expects high prices for the key battery metal to persist for years even as they spark a rush to expand supply. The lithium market crashed between 2018 and 2020 as it was swamped by oversupply and demand was hit after cuts to subsidies for electric vehicles. During that time prices dived from $25,000 per tonne to below $6,000, according to data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

 

리튬 가격이 붕괴했을 때가 2018-2020년 사이인데 이 때 과잉공급에 보조금 폐지가 맞물리면서 25,000 하던 리튬 가격이 6,000까지 떨어짐. 개인적으로 이런 시나리오가 적용될 수도 있다고 봄. 지금 최대 80,000까지 갔는데 수요가 줄어들면 절반 이하로 갈 수도 있음. 공급만 보면 리튬 가격은 오르는 게 맞음. 문제는 수요임. 수요가 유지될 것인가. 이건 테슬라의 주가가 알려줄 것으로 보임. 

 

But Eric Norris, head of lithium at the US chemicals group, said the market for the metal had fundamentally transformed after breakneck growth in electric vehicle sales. Prices have surged more than 10-fold since 2020 to record highs of almost $80,000 per tonne, a level they have stayed close to throughout 2022, raising fears that carmakers could struggle to secure lithium supplies for the rest of the decade. “One of the reasons that we see things being so tight is just the market is fundamentally different,” Norris said in an interview. “In 2019, the market didn’t grow very much and it was 300,000 tonnes. Prior growth rates may have been 30,000-50,000 tonnes a year. “Today, the market grows 200,000 tonnes a year, almost the full size of what the market was back then,” Norris added, saying the average size of a new supply project was 5,000 tonnes.

 

Recommended Batteries Electric car battery prices rise for first time in more than a decade Albemarle is the world’s largest lithium producer by market capitalisation and is expected to pump out 130,000 to 140,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent this year from its assets in Chile, the US and Australia, with the output processed in the countries of production and in China. Its adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation is expected to jump fourfold this year to $3.3bn to $3.5bn on the back of surging prices.

 

알버말 에비타가 3.5billion까지 갈 것이라고 보는 것 같네. 그런데 이건 어디까지난 리튬 가격이 높게 되었을 때 가능한 가정인 듯. 

 

The company’s comments come as lithium market analysts debate whether the metal is a commodity like any other, with boom-bust cycles, or whether it faces structural shortages indefinitely as a nascent industry fights to keep up with the rise of electric vehicles. Low battery metal prices are vital to making EVs affordable for consumers. Goldman Sachs forecasts a sharp price correction to $11,000 per tonne of LCE by 2024 as China’s EV sector grapples with an oversupply of cars, and high lithium prices prompt the development of new sources of supply in Chile, Australia and China.

 

골드만 이 놈들은 2024년에 11,000까지 떨어질 거라고 보네. 거의 저주급인 듯 이 정도면. 그 정도는 아니라고 봄. 그러나 3-4만 정도로는 갈 수 있다고 봄. 최고점 대비 절반. 

 

About 40 lithium projects under development globally are undergoing or have completed definitive feasibility studies, a 166 per cent increase over 2019, according to analysis by Fastmarkets NewGen. Lithium analysts say the cost of new supply is high because of lower grades under development at new projects, which will keep prices from falling below $20,000 per tonne. Australia’s government said this month that it only expected prices to slip to an average of about $48,000 per tonne of lithium hydroxide, another battery-grade lithium chemical, in 2024.

 

호주 정부는 2024년에 수산화 리튬 가격이 48,000 정도로 조정될 것이라고 봄. 그럼 탄산리튬 가격은 40,000 정도로 될 것으로 보임. 

 

Canberra also echoed the industry’s concern that new projects under development by junior miners were prone to delays, which would result in “persistent supply shortages over the next few years”. But it added that the build-up of inventories by lithium refineries and battery manufacturers was an unknown factor that could drive prices lower more quickly than expected.