[LAC #119] 리튬 공급 부족 2030년까지 될 수도

오늘자 Fincial Times 기사. 알버말 고위관계자가 나와서 하는 말이 인상적. 공급 부족이 최소 7-8년은 갈 것이고, 그래서 알버말이 올해 들어서만 이익 추청치를 세 번이나 올렸다고. 리튬 톤당 7만불 간다고 했을 때 다들 너무 과하다고 하지만 아직도 내려갈 생각이 없음..골드만 선생님 어디 계십니까...

 

Carmakers face fierce battle for lithium until 2030, warns top producer | Financial Times (ft.com)

Carmakers face fierce battle for lithium until 2030, warns top producer

Kent Masters, chief executive of Albemarle, the largest publicly traded lithium producer, said the market will remain tight despite efforts to unlock more of the metal. “It’s systemic for a pretty long period of time,” Masters said of the challenge facing the industry. “For seven to eight years it stays pretty tight.” The forecast from Albemarle, which is based in Charlotte, North Carolina, and counts Tesla and other major carmakers as customers, comes after a more than eightfold surge in the price of lithium compounds since the start of 2020. While the price has steadied near the record $70,000 per tonne hit in April, lithium’s use in batteries has allowed it to escape the recession-driven decline that has hit many other commodities in recent months. Riding the hot market, Albemarle has lifted its earnings forecast three times this year, expects to be able to increase its production and turn cash flow positive faster than expected.

 

알버말 관계자가 한 다음 부분 말이 인상적인데, "말로는 다 한다고 하지만 실제로 말하는 것의 1/4 정도만 달성되는 게 현실" 이유는 딜레이가 너무 많고 기술적 문제들이 생기기 때문이라고. 그러니까 지금 공수표 날리는 회사들 잘 가려서 선별해야. 

 

“The ability to execute capital projects is not widely held,” said Norris, adding that lithium companies have historically delivered as much as 25 per cent less production than promised in a given year because of chronic delays and technical mishaps.

 

무엇보다 리튬 개발이 어려운 게 광산 개발 시작부터 생산까지 최소 6년에서 최대 19년이 걸린다고. 그런데 지금 모든 회사들이 3년안에 하겠다고 하고 있으니 이게 말이 되나. 결국 테마성으로 올라갔다가 빠져나가는 전형적인 치고 빠지는 현상이 나오는 것으로 보임. 

Lithium mining projects typically take between six and 19 years from an initial feasibility study to actual production, the longest of any of the technologies involved in electric batteries, according to a report last month from the International Energy Agency.