A surge in sales of hybrid cars as electric vehicle take-up slows is set to provide an unexpected boost to demand for platinum group metals (PGMs) in the coming years, similar to the extended lifespan now predicted for coal.
PGMs – principally platinum and palladium – face a long-term structural decline in demand as their main use has been to clean auto exhausts, a process that is not needed in pure EVs.
A few years ago, the prospects for PGMs, and producers such as Anglo Platinum, Impala Platinum and Sibanye Stillwater, appeared grim as EV sales soared, and the drop-off in demand was expected to be steep.
But a tapering in growth of EV sales, and a surge in demand for hybrid cars that need catalytic converters to curb pollution, have given PGMs a new lease of life that could put a floor under prices and keep some mines open for longer.
“You’re still facing an outright demand decline, but there’s not an immediate collapse, which could have been the projection in some (previous) scenarios,” said Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie Bank in Singapore.
The increase in sales of pure EVs globally in the first half of 2024 slowed to 11% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales jumped 44%, according to consultancy Rho Motion.
For EVs, the figures are a big fall-off from two years ago when sales rocketed 77%.
Popular PHEVs include BYD’s Song and the BMW 3 Series.
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