이번주 중국발 구리 급락이 일어났지만 (생각보다 중국 건설 경기 등이 좋지 않음), 여전히 구리는 부족할 것이라는 리포트가 계속 나옴.
https://www.mining.com/web/column-coppers-anticipated-supply-surplus-is-proving-elusive/
The global copper market is facing another year of supply deficit, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The Group’s April forecast is for a supply shortfall of 114,000 tonnes this year after a 431,000-tonne deficit in 2022. When the ICSG statistical committee last met in October, it expected a shift to surplus this year to the tune of 155,000 tonnes. That market turnaround is now only seen materializing next year.
올해 15만톤 이상 과잉 공급을 기대했지만 실제로 올해 11만톤 이상 공급 부족을 겪을 것이라는 전망. 구리값이 미친 듯이 오른 2022년 43만톤 부족이었다.
가격은 여전히 논란중인데 골드만과 시티의 의견이 다르다. 골드만은 거의 파운드당 5불 가까이 될 것이라고 보는 것 같고 (지금은 3불 후반대), 시티는 3불 중후반 정도에 멈출 것이라고 보는 듯.
Disputed narrative
Copper’s current narrative is a hotly disputed topic.
In the bull corner is Goldman Sachs, which thinks there is “now no new mine supply wave this year” and is warning of a “stockout episode” as inventory is drawn to critical levels to plug the supply gap.
The investment bank continues to target a 25% upside move in the price this year with a 12-month forecast of $11,000 per tonne, compared with copper’s current price of $8,500. (“Copper: priced for scarcity”, May 1, 2023).
Citi is in the bear camp. “A copper stock out is extremely unlikely in 2023 in our view,” was the bank’s May 3 response. It cited weak global demand, high finished goods inventories and improving supply and has downgraded its price forecast for the next three months from $8,500 to $8,000 per tonne.
London Metal Exchange three-month copper has been locked in an $8,400-9,200 range since February, uncertain how to balance out Chinese recovery and Western slowdown, weakness in old industrial sectors and strength in new energy transition sectors.
The market is finely poised between bull and bear signals and the ICSG’s latest forecasts suggest that also reflects a more balanced supply-demand dynamic over the next two years than previously anticipated.
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)
(Editing by Mark Potter)
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