구리와 원유 상관관계

일반적으로 둘의 상관관계를 매우 높다. 그러나 아래 기사처럼 둘은 따로 놀 가능성도 있다. 현재까지는 둘이 매우 높은 상관관계를 보여왔다. 원유는 지금 공급이 꾸준히 나오고 있는 반면에 수요도 줄고 있고, 구리는 공급이 좀 제한적이다. 구리는 무엇보다 중국에 대한 의존도가 아직까지 매우 높아서 그것도 원유와 다른 점. 

 

Copper & Oil Prices: A Look at the Correlation - Admiral Metals

Copper & Oil Prices: A Look at the Correlation - Admiral Metals

Is there a difference now? 

According to Darren Gaudreault, Admiral’s Vice President of Purchasing, “There are economic drivers indicating the correlation between copper and oil prices may be weakening over time.” While global economic factors continue to connect them, there are separate influencers affecting each commodity’s supply and demand. On the supply side, fracking has increased US oil production to nearly 9 million barrels a day, and domestic crude oil reserves hit 36 billion barrels in 2013 for the first time since 1975 (source: US Energy Information Administration). This trend is expected to continue. Our lower dependence on foreign oil has forced producers who once sold to the US to compete on price with an increasing number of suppliers in Asian markets, as well. In addition, demand for oil has been reduced by now longstanding greener alternatives and gas mileage reduction in our vehicles. All of these factors have brought oil costs from over $100 a barrel to closer to $60, as of late.

 

Copper prices have declined as well, but foreconomic factors that are different from oil. What has affected copper prices is fluctuating demand from China. While demand from China is still growing, according to the research company, CRU Group, growth will slow to 4 percent in 2015, down from 5.5 percent in 2014. In addition, Chinese lenders that allowed copper to be used as collateral on loans find themselves under water as the value of copper declined. Yet, unlike oil, supply and demand of copper has not been as volatile; there is no indicator of a large change in copper supply now or in the near future.