양극화된 리테일

하락장일 때 잘 버텨주었던 달러제너럴과 달러트리가 폭락 중이다. 반대로 비슷한 이미지의 월마트와 코스트코는 상승중. 이런 양극화 추제는 주목할만하다. 2022년과는 다른 양상이다. 

 

2022년 하락장에 기가 막힌 방어주로 나섰던 달러 제너럴과 달러트리. 

 

 

그러나 올해 들어 수익률은 다르다. 월마트, 코스트고, 그리고 스프라우츠가 달리는 추세. 반면 저가 그로서리는 빅랏, 달러트리는 박살 중. 

 

 

아래는 달러general 어닝 콜. 

 

Dollar General Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary:

1. Company Performance:
   • Net Sales: Increased by 4.2% to $10.2 billion, driven by the consumables category. However, same-store sales grew only 0.5%, below expectations, due to a challenging financial environment for core customers.
   • Financial Results: Gross profit margin decreased by 112 basis points to 30%, primarily due to increased markdowns, inventory damages, and shrinkage. Operating profit dropped 20.6% to $550 million, with EPS down 20.2% to $1.70.
2. Customer Insights:
   • Core Customer Struggles: The majority of Dollar General's core customers, earning less than $35,000 annually, are facing significant financial pressure. Many are resorting to credit cards for basic needs, with some expecting to miss bill payments.
   • Spending Behavior: Customers are focusing on essential consumables, with traffic increasing by 1% but offset by a decrease in average transaction size. Discretionary categories like seasonal and home goods saw declines.
3. Strategic Actions:
   • Promotional Activity: Dollar General plans to increase markdowns and promotional efforts to drive traffic and sales, especially in consumable categories. The company remains confident in its competitive pricing position.
   • Inventory Management: The company has reduced inventory by 7% compared to the prior year, with a focus on optimizing mix and improving in-stock levels.
   • Back-to-Basics Strategy: Efforts include improving supply chain efficiency, enhancing the customer experience, and simplifying operations in stores. The company is making progress but acknowledges the need for further improvement.
4. Guidance Update:
   • Sales Growth: Updated net sales growth guidance to 4.7%-5.3% for the fiscal year, with same-store sales expected to grow 1%-1.6%.
   • Challenges: Continued financial pressure on core customers, an elevated promotional environment, and shrinkage are expected to weigh on margins. Dollar General anticipates these headwinds will persist into 2025.
5. Leadership Commentary:
   • CEO Todd Vasos: Emphasized the importance of supporting customers during tough times and expressed confidence in Dollar General's ability to recover and grow in the long term. He highlighted ongoing efforts to improve store operations, supply chain, and customer engagement.

Overall, while Dollar General is making operational progress, it faces significant challenges due to the financial strain on its core customer base and a competitive retail environment. The company is taking proactive steps to address these issues, but financial results for the year are expected to remain under pressure.

 

그리고 질문들

 

 

• Michael Lasser (UBS):
  • Question: Concerned about the structural challenges Dollar General faces, including competition, the rise of online shopping, and margin pressures. How does Dollar General plan to address these issues?
  • Answer (Todd Vasos, CEO): Dollar General does not believe its model is structurally challenged but acknowledges challenges due to a financially strapped consumer. The company plans to go on the offensive with more promotional activities to regain market share and leverage sales growth to improve margins.
• Simeon Gutman (Morgan Stanley):
  • Question: How does the current environment affect your reinvestment strategy? Are there any underperforming store cohorts that might need to be rationalized?
  • Answer (Todd Vasos, CEO): The company is focusing on its back-to-basics plan, improving operations, and investing in promotions to drive traffic. They are not planning significant store rationalizations but are committed to improving operational efficiency across the board.
• Matthew Boss (JPMorgan Chase):
  • Question: Asked about the cadence of comps throughout the quarter and customer sentiment changes.
  • Answer (Todd Vasos, CEO): Comps were strongest in June but turned negative in July, with transaction declines driving the weakness. Dollar General is increasing promotional activities to address customer financial pressures and improve comps moving forward.
• Rupesh Parikh (Oppenheimer):
  • Question: Is there more conservatism in the guidance, and how has consumer response to promotions been so far?
  • Answer (Kelly Dilts, CFO): Guidance is based on a macro-neutral to slightly softening consumer environment. The promotional activities have been well-received, driving customer engagement and traffic as expected.
• Peter Keith (Piper Sandler):
  • Question: Why isn't Dollar General seeing the normal share gains during tough times when customers typically need value retailers more?
  • Answer (Todd Vasos, CEO): The trade-in from middle-income customers has been slower due to factors like the still-decent job market and increased online shopping. Dollar General is focusing on enhancing value propositions to attract more customers.
• Seth Sigman (Barclays):
  • Question: How have price gaps evolved, and what actions are being taken in terms of markdowns and promotions?
  • Answer (Todd Vasos, CEO): Dollar General feels confident in its everyday low-price position. Promotional activities are focused on high-traffic categories like food and paper goods, and the guidance reflects increased promotional investments.
• John Heinbockel (Guggenheim Partners):
  • Question: What is the ROI of promotions, and are there any opportunities to lower the comp required to leverage expenses?
  • Answer (Todd Vasos, CEO): Promotional activities have historically driven sticky customer behavior, making them a good investment. Dollar General continues to explore opportunities to improve efficiency and reduce costs, though no major changes to the comp leverage point are expected.
• Corey Tarlowe (Jefferies):
  • Question: How does Dollar General manage lower inventories while improving in-stock levels and increasing markdowns?
  • Answer (Todd Vasos, CEO): The company has optimized inventory by reducing SKUs and focusing on faster-turning, high-demand items, which helps maintain in-stock levels while supporting promotional efforts.